Analysis: Here's a look at the fundamentals Harris needs to beat to win

 Given how few people believe the country is heading in the right direction,

former President Donald Trump should win this election.   Instead, the polls show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck. Now, it's unclear whether Harris can continue to win the support of many voters who think we're heading in the wrong direction. What's clear is that if Harris wants to win next month, she'll need to ignore certain ground rules, and recent history suggests she has a chance.   When I talk about ground rules, I mean questions that go beyond horse racing, like asking Americans if they believe the country is on the right track. A small percentage of Americans have always thought the country was moving in the right direction, but for the most part, it's never been as bad as the current numbers. According to the latest NBC News poll, only about 28% of Americans currently believe the country is on the right track. This is significantly lower than when Joe Biden took office in 2021, when the percentage was well over 40%. In fact, 28% is not the number the president's party wants to achieve a month before the election, regardless of whether the incumbent is running. Since 1980, in elections won by the incumbent party, an average of 42% of Americans have said the country is on the right track. Another fundamental issue is equally troubling for Harris: the president's approval rating. The incumbent party has never won when the president's disapproval rating was higher  than his approval rating. Biden's approval rating is about 10 points higher than his.

Fundamental Differences Despite these fundamental arguments against Trump, Harris may have a trump card: the 2022 midterm elections. Remember two years ago. Biden's approval ratings were basically as bad as they are today. In my polling average, only 26% of Americans thought we were on the right path as a nation. That 26% was the lowest  in the past 40 years before the midterm elections. In other words, there were few (if any) better indicators for Democrats in 2022  than there are now.