Former President Donald Trump has a nearly 10-point lead in Pennsylvania on online betting platforms.
PolyMarket, which allows users to bet on events such as the presidential election, found on Tuesday that Trump has a 55% chance of winning Pennsylvania, while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 46% chance of winning. This is the first time that PolyMarket has seen Trump's chances of victory so high since President Biden dropped out of the race and Harris took over. Biden's chances of winning reached 67% a week before he left office. From late September to around October, the odds of both candidates winning were roughly equal. 2. There's no way to say for sure what's causing the increased confidence in a Trump win in the Keystone State. Also, Ploymarket doesn't restrict individual bettors. An X account, supposedly run by a Tesla owner, campaigning with Trump in Butler County, Pennsylvania. Both were in Butler on Saturday, and Trump saw a three-point rise in Ploymarket from Friday to Saturday. In another post reposted by Musk from DogeDesigner, he said the betting market odds are "more accurate than polls because real money is at stake." Polls still show Harris leading in Pennsylvania. A pooled average calculated by the website FiveThirtyEight shows Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania 48% to 47.3%, a much smaller probability than the polymarkets. Pennsylvania is a key battleground state that Trump won in 2016 but has reverted to Democrat status in 2020.
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